76 A pillar of the Brazilian economy and, naturally, a mainstay of road cargo transport, agribusiness faces a promising 2025. Better still, in production, for the domestic market, and export opportunities driven by a favorable exchange rate. After a 3.2% contraction in agricultural GDP last year, growth of 6% is forecast for 2025, driven by bumper harvests and stability for some segments and commodities. Analysts in the sector agree that Brazil will see growth of 4.1% in cereal, legumes, and oilseeds, to 322.6 million tons, up by 29.9 million tons on 2024. Brazil’s official statistics office, the IBGE, says soybeans will be the main crop, accounting for practically half of production, at 166.5 million tons, up by 14.9% year on year. Analysts are also convinced that exports will help drive the sector, sustain a positive business year in 2025 and, of course, shift cargo to the ports. Although there was a fall in exports of soybeans, corn, and sugar and alcohol products last year, Brazilian agribusiness also sees signs of growth due to the expansion of the number of international markets and the increase in the prices of commodities such as meat, cocoa, orange juice, and coffee. Record results - The sector celebrated record exports of animal protein in 2024. Beef exports totaled 2.89 million tons, up 22% on 2023, and chicken exports grew by 3%, to 5.29 million tons. With steady demand and some increases in large consumer countries – China being one of them – analysts think these results can be repeated in 2025 or even bettered. Even with the weather that affected the 2024/2025 harvest, coffee, whose price continues to rise, should see exports this year of somewhere between 45 and 47 million bags. There are, as we know, other good reasons to bet on rising exports, especially the more favorable exchange rate with the dollar. The Central Bank’s Focus Report projects an exchange rate of R$ 5.90 to the dollar at the end of this year, although large investment banks estimate values from R$ 5.70 to R$ 6.20. In any case, export revenue should grow, with Brazilian agricultural products being more competitive in the international market. The other side - It should also be remembered that a strong dollar concerns businesses as it makes imported inputs more expensive, in particular machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, vital parts of agricultural activity. Another negative factor hampering Brazilian agribusiness is infrastructure. The Brazilian Association of the Machinery and Equipment Industry (Abimaq) says there is a shortfall in storage of around 100 million tons, which forces producers to sell production and not always at the best time in the market. As if that were not enough, to reach consumers, production depends mainly on road freight transport, historically dealing with inefficient roads, structures, and logistics that put pressure on costs. According to the National Transport Confederation (CNT), about 57% of federal highways are in poor condition, increasing costs that are already under pressure from fuel increases in recent months. Good news from the field Bumper harvests, exports driven by demand, and the exchange rate should make for a promising 2025 for agribusiness AGRONEGÓCIO | AGRIBUSINESS | AGRONEGOCIO
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