55 more pessimistic than Anfavea concerning light vehicles, but more optimistic about heavy vehicles in 2025. The dealers’ representative association estimates an increase of 5% in domestic sales of cars and light commercial vehicles, with a 4.5% increase in truck sales and a 6% increase in bus sales. The estimates were released by Arcelio Junior, shortly after taking over as president of Fenabrave. He made a point of admitting that Fenabrave had been conservative in its projections, and the numbers include the macroeconomic scenario and “feeling” at the points-of-sale. “Higher interest rates are expected in the first half of the year, which will affect credit and hold back growth in the automotive market,” he said, adding that the projections could be reviewed, depending performance of the local and global economy in the coming months. “The exchange rate, income, credit, and other factors in the economic and political contexts influence the vehicle distribution business, which makes it difficult, at this moment, to make accurate forecasts for a longer period,” he concludes. More investment in auto parts - Sindipeças has reviewed its projections based on changes in the economy and automotive sector. It updated its figures in January, projecting 4% growth in revenue, from R$261.5 billion in 2024 to R$272 billion in 2025. Investments by auto parts companies in 2024 exceeded expectations of R$ 6.2 billion and hit R$ 6.4 billion, up by 10% on 2023. This year’s initial estimate of R$ 6.3 billion has been increased to R$ 6.6 billion, up by 3.1% on last year. Increased investment is clearly connected to the federal government’s Mover program, which grants incentives for research and development, and the production of new hybrid models in the country, including brands that will start manufacturing operations in Brazil this year. As for 2025, the president of Sindipeças, Cláudio Sahad, points to some challenges Brazil faces that may deepen, such as a worsening fiscal situation, with increased interest rates being a cruel consequence for everyone, and the reduction of economic activity, with repercussions on production and employment levels. “Furthermore, imports of auto parts and vehicles are increasing, sometimes driven by a slow government reaction, as in the case of the reconstitution of the Import Tax on electric and electrified vehicles,” says Sahad, who also recalls the lack of resources to stimulate investment in innovation. “They exist in programs such as Mover, but they are not enough,” he says. As for the impacts of the measures adopted by the USA, the president of Sindipeças says it is a complex issue and is being thoroughly studied by the organization. “Apparently, the number of tariff positions on auto parts is small,” he says. La expectativa de intereses más altos, la volatilidad cambial del inicio del año y el propio escenario mundial generan proyecciones cautelosas por parte de fabricantes, proveedores de piezas automotrices, concesionarios y también de las empresas de transporte para 2025. No llega a haber una previsión de baja, pero hay un consenso respecto a la desaceleración del crecimiento con relación al desempeño positivo del año pasado. En el caso de Anfavea, Asociación Nacional de los Fabricantes de Vehículos Automotrices, la apuesta es de crecimiento del 8.4% en la producción de vehículos ligeros, para los 2,58 millones de unidades, y de un insignificante 0.2% en la de pesados, de 169 mil para 169,4 mil. Con respecto a las ventas internas, las estimativas son de expansión del 6.6% en el mercado de automóviles y comerciales ligeros, para los 2,65 millones, y de apenas un 1.3% en el de camiones y autobuses, con 149,2 mil licencias este año, frente los 147,3 mil de 2024. Las proyecciones de la entidad de los fabricantes se basan Sobran dudas y factores internos y externos que pueden influenciar el desempeño de la industria automotriz en 2025. La única certeza es la necesidad de cautela en un escenario más acompasado. Menos velocidad, pero aún en la delantera
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