54 There are plenty of questions and internal and external factors influencing the automotive industry’s performance in 2025. The only certain thing is the need to tread carefully in a more measured scenario. Still moving forward, if not so fast The expectation of higher interest rates, exchange rate volatility at the beginning of the year, and the global scenario overall have led to cautious projections by automakers, auto parts suppliers, dealers, and transport companies for 2025. A fall is not forecast, but the consensus is there will be slower growth compared with last year. The National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea) is betting on an 8.4% increase in the production of light vehicles, to 2.58 million units, and an insignificant 0.2% increase in the production of heavy vehicles, from 169,000 to 169,400. Domestic sales are forecast to increase by 6.6% in the car and light commercial vehicle market, to 2.65 million, and just 1.3% in the truck and bus market, to 149,200 registrations this year, compared with 147,300 in 2024. Anfavea has based its projections on economic indicators such as GDP growth, the consumer confidence index, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. However, Igor Calvet, the president of Anfavea since April 15, says that in addition to the unpredictability of the global economy caused by US tariffs, rising interest rates inhibit performance. He warns that at the end of the first quarter, the truck market saw deliveries in the heavy category, a traditional driver of sales in the segment, frequently accounting for more than 50% of the market, were down. The leading category for long-distance highway transport applications saw sales increase year on year by 7.9%, then ended the first two months down by 1.4%, and were down in the first three months by 7%, from 14,100 to 13,100 units. “This is a worrying trend, as an expected record harvest has not been reflected in purchases,” says Calvet. “The scenario of high interest rates, attractive commodity prices, and increased operating costs has held investment back so far.” Although the heavy category is cooling, the truck market was still in positive territory until March, up by 4.8%, supported by the growth in sales of semi-heavy, medium, and light vehicles. Anfavea also says increased import tariffs by the USA may result in more idle capacity in countries supplying the USA, resulting in a redirection to Brazil and other Latin American markets. Cost pressures - Eduardo Rebuzzi, president of NTC&Logística, says Brazil kept operating costs stable in 2024 and the market was relatively strong, but he adds that this situation was not enough to eliminate the accumulated hike in freight values over the years, estimated at 13%. Rebuzzi says this situation got worse at the beginning of 2025, given the pressures on costs resulting from the increase in diesel prices, the transition of the payroll tax exemption, variations in the ICMS tax rate set out by Confaz, and consecutive increases in the basic interest (Selic) rate. “To face this challenge, the sector will have to adopt effective management strategies, with the possibility of readjusting freight values to protect the economic viability of operations,” says the president of NTC&Logística. Despite the challenges, however, Rebuzzi sees opportunities for improvement in road freight transport. “Investments in transport infrastructure, such as the R$ 6.5 billion invested in the first half of 2024, can improve logistics efficiency and reduce costs in the long term. In addition, growing demand for cargo transportation, driven by agribusiness and e-commerce, can generate growth opportunities for carriers that can adapt to new market demands,” he says. Rebuzzi understands that it is essential for companies in the sector to invest in operational efficiency, adopting technologies that optimize routes and reduce fuel consumption. “It is also important to review the freight price structure, seeking to align prices with real costs, and negotiate properly with customers to ensure fair remuneration for the services provided,” he concludes. The National Federation of Vehicle Distributors (Fenabrave), is PERSPECTIVAS | OUTLOOK | PANORAMA
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