Anuário da Indústria de Implementos Rodoviários 2022

28 PERSPECTIVAS | OUTLOOK | PANORAMA As Anfavea said at the beginning of the year, automotive entities are forecasting only modest, single-digit growth for 2022. Caution over 2022 Several factors influence this, among them a shortage of semiconductors, high interest rates, inflation, and squeezes on credit. Also, it is an election year and sales at the beginning of the year were hindered by the spread of the omicron variant. Representing automakers, dealers, auto parts and transport companies, Anfavea forecasts the largest growth in 2022 in production, at 9.4%, to 2.46 million light and heavy vehicles. It forecasts 8.5% growth in domestic sales, to 2.3 million vehicles. The truck segment, says Anfavea, could see production grow by 10%, to 157,000 units, while the car and light commercial segment see slightly lower growth, of 8.4%, to 2.14 million units. Fenabrave estimates growth of only 4.6% in the number of vehicles licensed, to about 2.22 million units. By segment, the lowest rate is in cars, at only 2.9%, with something close to 1.6 million units licensed. Truck sales should increase by 7.3%, to about 136,600 units. Sindipeças’ forecast of a 4.8% increase in the auto parts industry’s revenues, is similar to Fenabrave’s. Also, the president of NTC&Logística, Francisco Pelucio, sees no substantial recovery in 2022. “Cargo transport reflects gross domestic product, two to three times its index. As the outlook is for very low GDP growth, the sector does not have high expectations. Not to mention that if inputs prices continue to increase, it will hold growth back a lot,” says Pelucio. The president of Anfavea, Luiz Carlos Moraes, says that, unlike previous years, projections are not considering the potential for consumption. The greatest weight is supply, still affected by the shortage of electronic components. He adds that the omicron variant was not taken into account in the entity’s forecasts. On the plus side in 2022, says Moraes, are agribusiness and pent-up demand from 2021, which could boost sales of this year. “But unemployment and rising interest rates and inflation are worrying, as are projections for stable GDP,” he said, acknowledging additional risks arising from the elections and fiscal issues. Fenabrave President, José Maurício Andreta Júnior, acknowledges that 2021 was a complex year and that there are still doubts about the market this year. But he believes there is room for the market to continue to grow, although he says the rise in interest rates deserves attention. “Financial institutions have been more selective in releasing credit,” he says. The president of NTC&Logística, for his part, recalls that the first half of 2021 was very good, but the second half of the year disappointed. “Road freight transport suffered from the uncertainties caused by the pandemic, as well as the hike in inputs prices,” Pelucio says, citing the increases of 51.3% in the additive Arla32, 45.6% in fuel, 34.12% in the price of vehicles, and 24.83% in transport. “A good thing in 2021 was that we did not have negative GDP,” he says. Dan Ioschpe of Sindipeças, says the pandemic still hampers projections in Brazil and around the world. “A more favorable year on the supply side is expected, but more challenging on the demand side, due to high inflation, interest rates, and the effects on economic activity,” he says. According to Sindipeças’ preliminary projections, the sector may close 2022 with nominal revenues of R$ 166 billion, which would represent growth of 4.8%. These are figures that, according to Ioschpe, can still be revised from the consolidation of the 2021 balance sheet. “We will remain vigilant and active to turn this page soon. However, for growth to be perennial and sustainable, we advocate an agenda that eliminates horizontal barriers to competitiveness, which affect all sectors of the economy in our country. We also need public policies that accelerate innovation and our integration into the world, preferably through international agreements. “