27 2016 to a halt. The only answer is for the federal government to enter into an agreement with the legislature. 90% of spending is mandatory and only 10% discretionary, meaning that the government is empowered to reduce them. The rest it needs permission from the lower house. As there is no peace between the two, the measures are not getting approved and spending exceeds revenue. Industry will produce less, the government will collect less tax, spending continues and the crisis remains,” he explains. Despite the difficult situation forcing companies to reduce production, the president of Simefre sees no risk of shortages in the country, just a lack of demand. “Imagine how much copper, lead, plastic, steel, glass, rubber is no longer needed,” he says. He believes a solution to the fall in demand on the domestic market by way of exports could be an interesting alternative, but he warns: “It depends on the export policy that each company had before the crisis. If it was a privileged strategy, with the high dollar it quickly resumes exports. “Martins stresses that exports depend on continuity, technology, product quality and the exchange rate. However, amid this morass Martins also sees opportunities. He bases his reasoning on the recent downturn which resulted in a sharp drop in consumption. By this logic he concludes that as in the last two years the market has ceased to buy new equipment and trucks, the fleet is aging, with an average age of between 15 and 20 years old. So, they must be replaced with new ones. And he adds that soon the problem will cease to be one of low demand and will be just about finance. Asked to give an opinion on what he considers necessary for the companies he represents to resume growth, the experienced business leader expresses his optimism. But he again insists on the need for fiscal adjustment. He adds, “We need the press to help appease Brazil so it can resume growth. Brazil is a country of great natural resources and if the political crisis ends, recovery will come about in a year because we are a country of great mineral resources, water resources, and a high-technology automobile industry. In 2015 we produced 208 million s tons of grain. We are tied up because there is no peace between the powers of government,” he concludes. Anfir: recovery in 2017 In line with the market, especially industry, as he is also a businessman in the sector, Alcides Braga, president of the National Association of Highway Implement Manufacturers (Anfir) saw things similar to the other leaders interviewed. From the outset, he was adamant about this year’s performance, making it clear that it will not be possible to make up what was lost in 2015. His forecasts, however, are far from catastrophic. In fact, in a sense they can be expressed as ‘the lesser of evils,’- Alcides Braga sees no recovery on last year, but no further loss, either. The president of Anfir said: “We believe that the results this year will be the same as reported in the previous year, because there is no sign of recovery in the productive sectors.” Alcides Braga lists the reasons for his deductions. “The main thing was the general decline in economic activity in 2015, as the highway implement sector suffers directly with any oscillation of this nature. The segment depends essentially on the performance of other sectors of the economy, which last year did not do well. Highway implements are responsible for transporting more than 60% of all the goods that move through the country. From inputs to imported products, everything that is moved by road is moved in a highway implement. So, any reduction or interruption in a business segment directly affects the sector and, as we know, recovery takes longer than decline, which means that the negative effects will continue this year,” he says. Another factor that will contribute to this forecast is finance. “The rule for this year is: the fundable portion of goods with public money is 80% for small and medium enterprises and 70% for large companies. The annual interest rate used in financing is TJLP plus the BNDES spread of 1.5% and that of the commercial banks, which varies accord-
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